If you are in the market for a new whole home HVAC System you are now in a period of uncertainty. In the past 20 years we have seen systems that use R22 refrigerants brought to market then banned by the EPA and their replacement models that run R410a are now being scheduled for elimination. The problem with this is the extreme expense for home owners. It may shock you but there are many homes being built right now that do not have HVAC Whole Home Systems because of these problems. Some people are lucky enough to live in climates where a single window unit or a Mini Split System can be installed but these units do not provide enough output to cool homes in hotter areas of the country. I know a gentleman in Las Vegas that has a relatively small home of maybe 2000sq feet and he has to use Five Mini Split Systems that run off of solar during the day and grid power during the night to be able to afford to cool his home. Even with that he is struggling to cool his home efficiently and for a reasonable price.
The unfortunate thing is that the EPA Regulations on Air Conditioning Refrigerant are actually introducing less efficient products that are more dangerous both for Technicians and for the Home Owner. New refrigerants are actually flammable and explosive and because your HVAC Air Conditioning system is positioned right in line with your Gas Furnace you are risking fire and possible worse damage to your home and equipment with this new product.
EPA Phaseout Of R410a Refrigerant
The original Phaseout Date for R410a Refrigerant was January 2023 which has already passed. At this point there is not a set in stone date because the new equipment is not available and because technicians have not had the chance to be trained in the replacement of the older equipment.
This is an extremely bad situation for companies and home owners because not only do they have to wait for unavailable equipment if they do find themselves in need for major repair and replacement at this time their investment might only be able to be maintained for a few months or at most a couple years. The replacement parts for 410a along with the refrigerant will be banned from manufacture. So, if you buy a new system for say $5,000 just for the hardware today it might be worth nothing by 2024 or 2025. You may need to completely replace a new system because a compressor fails on your unit and this is very easy to happen. What this will mean for Manufacturer Warranties is not understood because this problem did not exist in previous transitions.
New Refrigerants Are Less Efficient, Equipment Is More Expensive And the Situation Is Getting Dangerous
Normally when you are upgrading your equipment in your home or business you are factoring in how much better the new equipment is to justify its replacement. For Gas Furnaces you might be going from a 80% or less efficient unit to a 95%+ unit and the savings just in fuel costs will pay for the unit upgrade in just a few years.
This is absolutely not the case when it comes to HVAC Air Conditioning Units. In the recent transitions we have seen less and less efficient units replacing older technology and the equipment cost on average has been increasing 30% to 50% for the same quality of cooling. This is just not acceptable for a variety of reasons including the fact that today we have very large populations living in areas that were not inhabited just 100 years ago. Places all along the south including the desert southwest have built up to extremes and you just can not live without air conditioning in these areas. Its not about comfort its about sustaining life and physically being able to survive. At this moment the Desert Southwest is experiencing a heatwave of multiple days over 115F. They are reporting that if the power grid goes down they could expect up to 28,000 people to die in just a few weeks.
Eventually the goal is to not only reduce the production of new systems but to remove the old systems from use. This will happen in Commercial applications first where companies will be forced to remove perfectly good systems and replace them. Eventually they want to get down to refrigerants that are made of useless gasses like carbon dioxide.
The current R410a refrigerant was marked for banning in January of 2023 which has already passed but the new refrigerants are so bad that companies are having difficulty trying to comply with the laws. This means a delay in the ban which can happen any time but will definitely take place before 2025 which is only 2 years away.
Final Note
If you are considering HVAC Upgrades in the next few years you need to make sure that the products you are buying will still be serviceable in the future. Unfortunately at this time even professionals are having a hard time of understanding the new transition timelines and manufacturers are unable to comply with the replacement timelines.
This could leave you in a very bad position if you can not get guarantees that your equipment will be replaced if they are unable to repair it under these regulations.
This is not a simple situation and you can expect a large number of companies and businesses to get hurt if regulations do not account for all of the instances.